9 Nov · 20:35 MEZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1477
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chmelicek
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vidourek
ELO 1463
FormLWWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vidourek
Fair odds · Chmelicek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H12-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.