9 Nov · 20:15 MEZMedium · Model Lean
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1686
FormWLLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Sarganek
JB
🇨🇿Jaroslav Baca
ELO 1570
FormLWWLL
59%
41%
🌟Sarganek stays under total as favourite 68% (149)
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 69% · 1.44· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~74 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+116
H2H10-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+116)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-4)