9 Nov · 21:35 MEZLow · Slight Edge
SM
🇨🇿Simon Mezlik
ELO 1441
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Chmelicek
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1477
FormLWLWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Chmelicek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.