9 Nov · 17:35 MEZMedium · Model Lean
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1532
FormWLWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Trnka
TT
🇨🇿Tomas Trnka
ELO 1620
FormLWWWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Trnka
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+88
H2H15-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+88)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-9)