9 Nov · 18:50 MEZLow · Slight Edge
FB
🇨🇿Frantisek Balcar
ELO 1492
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dvorak
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1522
FormWWLLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Balcar🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (90)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H6-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.