10 Nov · 11:25 MEZLow · Coin Flip
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1554
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vonasek
DS
🇨🇿David Sochor
ELO 1543
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sochor
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H10-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.