10 Nov · 13:25 MEZMedium · Model Lean
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1381
FormLLLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Balcar
FB
🇨🇿Frantisek Balcar
ELO 1489
FormWLLWL
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Balcar rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (52)
Fair odds · Balcar
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+108
H2H27-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+108)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (27-19)