10 Nov · 14:25 MEZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1428
FormLLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kral
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1381
FormLLLLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Kral goes over total as favourite 71% (122)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H48-54
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.