10 Nov · 20:10 MEZLow · Coin Flip
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1491
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Ogrocki
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kus
ELO 1485
FormWWLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Ogrocki
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H12-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.