10 Nov · 17:55 MEZMedium · Model Lean
JC
🇨🇿Jiri Cerny
ELO 1464
FormLWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Moravec
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1539
FormLWWLW
44%
56%
🌟Cerny stays under total as underdog 64% (39)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~72 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+75
H2H14-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-12)