11 Nov · 10:55 MEZLow · Slight Edge
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlumsky
ELO 1422
FormWLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Chlumsky
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1401
FormWWWLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Chlumsky goes over total as favourite 65% (55)
Fair odds · Chlumsky
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H14-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.