11 Nov · 08:45 MEZMedium · Model Lean
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1441
FormLLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Matus
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1501
FormLWLWW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 64% (170)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+60
H2H25-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-20)