11 Nov · 09:40 MEZLow · Slight Edge
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlad
ELO 1529
FormWWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Chlad
AD
🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1476
FormWWWLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Drozd🌟Drozd covers set handicap as underdog 66% (59)
Fair odds · Chlad
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H8-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.