11 Nov · 09:45 MEZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1441
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sturma
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1391
FormWWLLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Snr🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (125)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H21-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.