11 Nov · 12:45 MEZLow · Coin Flip
DV
🇨🇿Daniel Vitasek
ELO 1531
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vitasek
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1522
FormLLWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik
Fair odds · Vitasek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H23-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.