11 Nov · 14:55 MEZMedium · Model Lean
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1459
FormLLLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Vonasek
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1575
FormWWLWW
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 71% (211)
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+116
H2H64-50
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+116)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (64-50)