11 Nov · 14:10 MEZLow · Coin Flip
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1478
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mandrysz
LZ
🇨🇿Lukas Zustina
ELO 1471
FormWWLLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zustina🌟Zustina covers set handicap as underdog 62% (37)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.