25 Jun · 17:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LB
🇵🇱Lukasz Bernacki
ELO 1537
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Bernacki
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1508
FormLLWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Bernacki
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+29
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.