25 Jun · 16:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1410
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Linek
AL
🇵🇱Adam Linek
ELO 1447
FormWWLWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Linek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+37
H2H12-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.