25 Jun · 16:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1640
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Poliniewicz
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kuzmicz
ELO 1618
FormWWWWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+22
H2H14-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.