25 Jun · 18:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1594
FormWWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Koczyba
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1645
FormLWWWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+51
H2H42-33
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+51)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (42-33)