25 Jun · 18:40 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1504
FormLLLWL
61%Win chancemodel fair 1.64Smolka
GJ
🇵🇱Grzegorz Jurowicz
ELO 1402
FormWWLWL
61%
39%
Fair odds · Smolka
Model 61% · 1.64vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-2
20%
3-0
18%
2-3
16%
1-3
14%
Elo Gap+102
H2H12-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+102)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-7)