25 Jun · 18:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1434
FormWWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Warpas
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1370
FormLWLWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+64
H2H21-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-13)