25 Jun · 19:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1637
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Tkocz
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1643
FormWLLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+6
H2H24-45
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.