25 Jun · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1331
FormWLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Wisniewski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1357
FormWLWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+26
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.