25 Jun · 22:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1343
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lukaszewski
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1367
FormLWLWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+24
H2H48-47
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.