25 Jun · 22:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RS
🇵🇱Robert Szymik
ELO 1619
FormLWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Tkocz
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1651
FormWWLLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+32
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.