25 Jun · 23:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1612
FormWLWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Tkaczyk
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1562
FormWLLWW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H36-32
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (36-32)