26 Jun · 01:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Marian Brunner
ELO 1569
FormLLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1618
FormWWLWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+49
H2H35-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (35-15)