26 Jun · 02:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1572
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Szymik
RS
🇵🇱Robert Szymik
ELO 1609
FormWLLLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Szymik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+37
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.