26 Jun · 05:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1402
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mugowski
KR
🇵🇱Kamil Rudomina
ELO 1378
FormLLWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+24
H2H43-44
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.