26 Jun · 04:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Marian Brunner
ELO 1557
FormLWLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1635
FormWWWWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
3-1
15%
Elo Gap+78
H2H36-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (36-15)