26 Jun · 06:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1490
FormLWWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Chmielowski
JC
🇵🇱Jakub Chmielowski
ELO 1564
FormLLLWL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Chmielowski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
3-1
16%
Elo Gap+74
H2H6-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-4)