26 Jun · 05:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1641
FormWWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Tkaczyk
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1571
FormLWWWL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 46% · 2.15· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
1-3
16%
Elo Gap+70
H2H37-32
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (37-32)