26 Jun · 06:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BC
🇵🇱Bartosz Czerwinski
ELO 1522
FormWWLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Chmielowski
JC
🇵🇱Jakub Chmielowski
ELO 1564
FormLLLWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Chmielowski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+42
H2H8-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+42)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-3)