26 Jun · 08:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1388
FormLLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sulkowski
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1406
FormWLLWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+18
H2H20-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.