26 Jun · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1569
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1598
FormWWWWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+29
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.