26 Jun · 08:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1399
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mugowski
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1389
FormWLWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+10
H2H24-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.