26 Jun · 09:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1524
FormWWLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Oracz
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1596
FormWLWLW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
3-1
16%
Elo Gap+72
H2H15-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-11)