26 Jun · 10:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TW
🇵🇱Tomasz Wrzalik
ELO 1402
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Wrzalik
PM
🇵🇱Patryk Mecik
ELO 1378
FormLLLWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Wrzalik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+24
H2H14-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.