26 Jun · 12:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MN
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1641
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Prokopcov
DP
🇵🇱Dmitrij Prokopcov
ELO 1648
FormWWWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Prokopcov
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 43% · 2.31· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+7
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.