26 Jun · 11:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1466
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Misiak
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1460
FormWLWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Misiak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+6
H2H10-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.