26 Jun · 12:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇵🇱Jacek Mitas
ELO 1520
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kolek
MK
🇵🇱Maciej Kolek
ELO 1534
FormLLWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Kolek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+14
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.