26 Jun · 12:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1469
FormWWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Minda
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1402
FormLWWWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Minda
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+67
H2H60-56
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (60-56)