26 Jun · 13:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1433
FormWLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sulkowski
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1402
FormLWWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 52% · 1.91· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+31
H2H13-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.