26 Jun · 18:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1598
FormLLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Adamus
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1583
FormLWLWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+15
H2H15-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.