26 Jun · 14:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1476
FormWWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Minda
AL
🇵🇱Adam Linek
ELO 1449
FormLWWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Minda
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+27
H2H54-48
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.