26 Jun · 13:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1511
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Ptak
WP
🇵🇱Wiktor Ptak
ELO 1525
FormLLWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Ptak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+14
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.