26 Jun · 15:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇵🇱Adam Linek
ELO 1433
FormLLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Linek
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1397
FormWLLWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Linek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+36
H2H24-33
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.