26 Jun · 16:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1449
FormLLWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Misiak
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1390
FormLWLLW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Misiak
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 48% · 2.09· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+59
H2H66-50
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (66-50)